We have more data since the last review (November 2025). Google AI Overviews (GAIO) and AI Mode have expanded, the EU has launched a formal antitrust investigation, and new studies show a significant drop in CTR for some queries.
In short, this is a continuation of the article ” Google AI Overviews and AI Mode: Top studies, analysis and recommendations (Update: 2025-06-22)” 🙂 for 2026.
Don’t expect a novel, but for me it’s more like a pile of sources with notes that I personally need to refer to when I talk to people 🙂
1. Studies and Research – Impact on CTR and Traffic
1.1 Ahrefs – AI Overviews Reduce Clicks by 58% (2026-02-04)
Why read this: An update of a key study with new data from December 2025 confirms that the GAIO impact is worsening – from a 34.5% decline in April 2025 to 58% in February 2026.
Key findings:
- GAIO reduces organic CTR for the first position by 58 %
- The impact decreases with position: position 1 (-58 %), position 5 (-32.6 %), position 10 (-19.4 %)
- Ahrefs also states that the trend fits into the broader growth of zero-click behavior
Methodology: 300,000 keywords (150,000 with GAIO, 150,000 without), aggregated Google Search Console data, comparison December 2023 vs. December 2025.
1.2 Seer Interactive – AIO Impact on Google CTR: September 2025 Update (2025-11-04)
Why read this: The most extensive study with long-term tracking – 15 months of data, 3,119 keywords, 25.1 million organic impressions.
Key findings:
- Organic CTR for queries with GAIO: decline from 1.76 % to 0.61 % (-61 %)
- Paid CTR for queries with GAIO: decline from 19.7 % to 6.34 % (-68 %)
- Even queries without GAIO show an organic CTR decline of about 41 % during the observed period
- Citation in GAIO = +35 % organic clicks, +91 % paid clicks compared to non-cited
Important: The study states that GAIO appears more often on queries that historically had lower CTR (similar to Featured Snippets).
1.3 Reuters Institute – News Publishers and AI Search (2026-01-12)
Why read this: An academic perspective on the future of publishers – a survey of 280 media executives from 51 countries.
Key findings:
- Publishers expect search traffic to decline by more than 40 % within 3 years (reported as aggregated expectation)
- About 20 % of respondents expect very high losses
- The report cites Chartbeat data on declining referral traffic from Google Search (globally and in the US)
- Utility/lifestyle content tends to be most affected, hard news may have different dynamics
(Also referenced in Search Engine Land: [https://searchengineland.com/news-publishers-search-referrals-drop-report-467408](https://searchengineland.com/news-publishers-search-referrals-drop-report-467408))
1.4 IDEAVA – 12 Studies Compilation (2026-02-08)
Why read this: A comprehensive overview of 12 studies, useful for a quick landscape summary.
Key findings:
- Authoritas: significant CTR decline for the top link when GAIO is present
- Pew Research: lower click-through rate to traditional results when AI summaries are present
- DMG Media: significant CTR losses for selected query types
- Semrush: growth in GAIO prevalence during 2025
- HubSpot case: significant organic traffic changes during the transition to AI-first SERPs
URL: https://ideava.com/insights/ai-overviews-ctr-decline/
1.5 iPullRank – Referral Patterns in AI Mode (2025-03-07)
Why read this: The first public data on AI Mode behavior.
Key findings:
- Only 4.5 % of sessions in AI Mode end with a click to an external website (vs. 24 % in traditional search)
Important clarification:
- Retention metrics such as “53 % users only once” and “~9 % active 5+ days” appear in follow-up iPullRank materials / secondary citations, not in this specific article.
URL: https://ipullrank.com/referral-patterns-ai-mode
1.6 Keypers – Google AI Mode in the Czech Republic (2025-11-19)
Why read this: A local source with a comprehensive overview of AI Mode data in the Czech Republic.
Key findings:
- AI Mode available in the Czech Republic since October 7, 2025 (with subsequent expansion)
- Top cited domains in AI Mode in the Czech Republic (according to cited local data): google.com, zbozi.cz, youtube.com, alza.cz, heureka.cz
- AI Mode uses Query Fan-Out
- Responses may draw from a high number of sources (reported as “up to 100” in the article)
URL: https://keypers.io/en/blog/google-ai-mode-in-the-czech-republic-a-new-chapter-in-search/
2. Regulatory Developments – EU Antitrust
2.1 European Commission – Formal Antitrust Investigation (2025-12-09)
Why read this: The first official EU step against Google in the context of using content for AI in search.
Key findings:
- The EC announced on December 9, 2025 the opening of a formal investigation
- It examines possible unfair conditions toward publishers and content creators
- The use of YouTube content for AI purposes is also under review
- Topics: publisher conditions, choice/opt-out, impact on competition
Primary source: https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/ip_25_2964
2.2 European Publishers Council – Antitrust complaint (2026-02-10)
Why read this: A formal complaint by representatives of European publishers following the EC investigation.
Key findings:
- EPC filed a formal complaint on February 10, 2026
- Alleges violation of Article 102 TFEU
- Arguments: use of content without adequate consent/compensation, insufficient opt-out
- Call for a more transparent and fair licensing framework
2.3 Reuters – Google hit by European publishers’ complaint (2026-02-10)
Why read this: An independent news summary of the EPC complaint and Google’s response.
3. Practical Strategies and the Future
3.1 Searches Everywhere – Google AI Overviews in 2026 (2026-02-18)
Why read this: A strategic commentary on 2026 trends.
Source note: Primarily an expert blog perspective (not an academic study). Treat as a complement to data-driven studies.
3.2 Semrush – AI Search SEO Traffic Study (2025-07-21)
Why read this: A predictive model of AI search impacts on traffic and business value.
Key findings:
- An AI search visitor can be up to 4.4× more valuable than a standard organic user
- Prediction: AI search may grow faster for informational queries than for transactional ones
URL: https://www.semrush.com/blog/ai-search-seo-traffic-study/
Additional note (separate related Semrush study):
Metrics such as “92 % answers with sidebar”, “average 7 unique domains”, “51 % domain overlap / 32 % URL” belong to the AI Mode comparison study: [https://www.semrush.com/blog/ai-mode-comparison-study/](https://www.semrush.com/blog/ai-mode-comparison-study/)
3.3 Evergreen Media – Google AI Overviews: What’s Changing for SEO & SEA in 2025 (2026-02-06)
Why read this: A trend overview from the DACH market + compilation of data from multiple studies.
Key findings:
- GAIO often appears for informational queries
- GAIO sources are often from top results
- GAIO frequency varies by vertical
- The impact on SEO/SEA depends on the SERP mix and intent type
URL: https://www.evergreen.media/en/guide/google-ai-overviews/
3.4 The Digital Bloom – Most Cited Domains in Google AI Overviews 2025 (2025-11-01)
Why read this: A compilation of “who is most cited” in AI answers.
Source note: Secondary/commentary material, recommended to verify against primary data (Ahrefs, Semrush, Seer, etc.).
4. Summary Table of Key Statistics
| Metric | Value | Source | Publication Date |
|---|---|---|---|
| CTR decline (position 1) | -58 % | Ahrefs | 2026-02-04 |
| Organic CTR with GAIO (observed period) | 0.61 % | Seer Interactive | 2025-11-04 |
| Organic CTR decline with GAIO | -61 % | Seer Interactive | 2025-11-04 |
| Paid CTR decline with GAIO | -68 % | Seer Interactive | 2025-11-04 |
| Expected search traffic decline (3 years) | >40 % (aggregated expectation) | Reuters Institute | 2026-01-12 |
| AI Mode clicks to external web | 4.5 % | iPullRank | 2025-03-07 |
| AI search visitor value | up to 4.4× | Semrush | 2025-07-21 |
5. Conclusion, Main Trends
- CTR in informational queries is under pressure – multiple studies confirm significant declines when AI elements are present.
- Intent and SERP type are critical – the impact is not uniform; brand and transactional queries behave differently than purely informational ones.
- Citations in AI answers are the new visibility battle – those cited may gain a relative advantage over non-cited competitors.
- EU regulatory pressure is increasing – the formal EC investigation + EPC complaint indicate legal and economic escalation of the topic.
- AI Mode is a separate chapter – a different UX model, different click behavior, and the need for separate measurement and strategy.
- Visit quality may increase even with lower volume – in some segments there is a visible shift from “more clicks” to “higher intent”.